Youth Unemployment by Ward: October 2012

This is estimated from the number of people aged 18-24 receiving Job Seekers Allowance.  The most recent data shows

• 5,990 people aged 18-24 claimed JSA (October 2012) out of a total estimated population of 68,083 in the age group (2011);
• the rate of 8.8% in Glasgow compares with 7.3% in both Scotland and the UK.

The details for Glasgow Wards are

• Linn: 310 claimants (10.9% of 18-24 population);
• Newlands/Auldburn: 245 (10.7%);
• Greater Pollok: 350 (10.6%);
• Craigton: 285 (9.5%);
• Govan: 365 (10.4%);
• Pollokshields: 135 (6.7%);
• Langside: 110 (6.5%);
• Southside Central: 375 (11.6%);
• Calton: 290 (10.4%);
• Anderston/City: 160 (2.4%);
• Hillhead: 185 (3.7%);
• Partick West: 180 (5.1%);
• Garscadden/Scotstounhill: 270 (9.0%);
• Drumchapel/Anniesland: 390 (12.9%);
• Maryhill/Kelvin: 290 (9.7%);
• Canal: 420 (10.4%);
• Springburn: 310 (11.1%);
• East Centre: 310 (10.0%);
• Shettleston: 230 (9.6%);
• Baillieston: 335 (10.4%);
• North East: 445 (12.6%).

The city total is a 9.2% decrease over the October 2011 figure (Scotland -8.2%, UK -8.8%) and generated by decreases in areas like Garscadden/Scotstounhill, Calton and Springburn.

Unemployment by Ward: October 2012

Job Seekers Allowance (October 2012)

The details for Glasgow Wards are

• Linn: 1,045 claimants (5.5% of 16-64 population);
• Newlands/Auldburn: 905 (5.6%);
• Greater Pollok: 1,310 (6.3%);
• Craigton: 1,195 (5.7%);
• Govan: 1,710 (8.0%);
• Pollokshields: 550 (3.5%);
• Langside: 580 (3.6%);
• Southside Central: 1,450 (6.7%);
• Calton: 1,305 (8.1%);
• Anderston/City: 850 (3.5%);
• Hillhead: 695 (3.3%);
• Partick West: 830 (3.6%);
• Garscadden/Scotstounhill: 1,205 (5.9%);
• Drumchapel/Anniesland: 1,335 (7.3%);
• Maryhill/Kelvin: 1,165 (6.4%);
• Canal: 1,515 (7.2%);
• Springburn: 1,250 (7.0%);
• East Centre: 1,220 (6.1%);
• Shettleston: 930 (5.8%);
• Baillieston: 1,030 (4.9%);
• North East: 1,525 (7.0%).

These rates are based on the 2011 mid year estimates of the working age population.

Employment Rate

This measures the proportion of the working age population (aged 16-64) in employment.  It is resident based and includes people living in Glasgow that either work in Glasgow or out-commute.  It therefore excludes in-commuters.  The most recent information is from the Annual Population Survey for the year ending June 2012, and is that

• 259,600 working age adults in Glasgow are in employment;
• this is 63.2% of working age population, based on a working-age population of 410,800;
• it is an increase of 3,400 (1.3%) from the comparable figure in 2011;
• while the number employed is lower than the levels in 2008 and 2009, it is higher than the comparable levels in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

You could conclude from this that employment levels are slowly recovering from the recession: they have not yet reached the highpoint of 2008, when the level reached 270,000, but they are still higher than the level of the middle of the last decade.

Additional points are

• the size of the working age population has been increasing (and possibly underestimated) so that this increase in employment numbers does not translate directly to increases in the employment rate;
• the employment rate for men (67.2%) is higher than the female rate (57.3%) and the recent increase has affected more men than women;
• the full-time/part-time ratio is 3:1 and the main recent increase has been in part-time jobs;
• while the employment rate for 16-24s has been falling, the rate for both 25-49s and 50-64s has increased.

For comparison

• the UK employment rate is 70.1%, and 70.9% for Scotland;
• Birmingham is 58.4%, Manchester 58.7%, and Liverpool 59.0%;
• Leeds is 68.7%;
• all as a percentage of the 16-64 working age population.

But note that estimates of the working age population vary.  In Leeds, it varies from 552,100 (March 2012 Annual Population Survey) to 551,500 (2010 mid year estimate) and to 513,400 (2011 Census, but for 15-64 population).  We'll only get the full picture once the Census results for Scotland become available, around December 2012. 

Working Age Population

The size of the working age population, and its share of the total, is an important determinant of economic growth. In general, cities tend to have a larger proportionate working age population due to employment opportunities and further/higher education: 

• 414,700 people in Glasgow (2010) are aged between 16 and 64, or 70.0% of the total population;
• 68.1% is the average for comparable cities (Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds);
• national rates are 65.7% in Scotland and 64.8% in the UK.

In part this reflects higher levels of premature death in Glasgow, as well as the way the city's boundary excludes suburbs, which tend to have a more mature population (Birmingham and Leeds include their suburbs).

But it also shows how Glasgow has retained its working age population after decades of population loss, and in particular the 25-44 age group, comprising

• 32.6% of Glasgow's population;
• 25.4% in the surrounding area;
• 26.5% in Scotland and 27.3% in the UK.

This age group is more likely to be in employment than other age groups and will therefore be an important influence on the future economy of the city.

Out-of-Work Benefits

The overall number of persons on benefits can be estimated using data from the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP).  For the working age population there are two indicators: the total number on benefits (99,830 in February 2012, or 24.1% of the working age population), and the total on out-of-work benefits (87,625 in February 2012, or 21.1% of the working age population).

Out-of-work benefits include Job Seekers Allowance, Employment Support Allowance/Incapacity Benefit, and some persons in receipt of Income Support.  The following details are for out-of-work benefits.

The Glasgow rate of 21.1% compares with national rates of 14.2% for Scotland and 12.1% for Great Britain.  It is also higher than the rates for Birmingham (18.7%), Manchester (17.8%) and Leeds (12.0%) although lower than the rate for Liverpool (22.0%).

However Glasgow’s rate is lower than the rate for February 2011 (21.3%) and February 2010 (21.8%); and while higher than the rate in February 2008 (20.7%) was lower than the pre-recession February 2007 rate of 22.0%.  It is worth noting that the full impact of welfare reform in reducing claimant numbers is probably still to be seen.

Unemployment

As at July 2012, there were 25,230 persons receiving Job Seekers Allowance (JSA).  Based on a 2010 working age population (age 16-64) of 414,700, this is a rate of 6.1%. 

The Glasgow rate is higher than for Scotland (4.2%) and the UK (3.9%).  While higher than the rates for Manchester (5.6%) and Leeds (4.5%), it is however lower than the rates for Liverpool (6.9%) and Birmingham (7.3%).  While the July 2012 rate in Glasgow is broadly in line with the rates in the last couple of years, it is higher than the rates in 2007-09.

Another way of measuring unemployment is by using the Annual Population Survey (APS).  This includes people that are unemployed but ineligible for JSA, and the rate is not affected by changes in welfare benefits.  On the other hand, the most recent figures are usually six to nine months old, and as the results come from a survey the results need to be interpreted accordingly.

On this definition, there were 34,400 persons unemployed in Glasgow for the year ending March 2012, giving a rate of 8.3%, and higher than the rates for Scotland and the UK (both 6.2%).  While lower than Birmingham (8.9%) and Manchester (8.4%), Glasgow’s rate is higher than in Liverpool (7.7%) and Leeds (7.5%). 

Unemployment in Glasgow on this definition did not change over the year, but was higher than the comparable rates in 2010 (7.5%), 2009 (5.5%) and 2008 (4.5%).

The source of these details is the UK Office for National Statistics.  Note that the APS rates listed above have used as a denominator the ONS mid-year estimate of the 16-64 population.